Population, labor force and employment statistics. Labor resources and related categories Rate of natural increase of labor resources formula

The main source of information on the number of people employed in the economy is data on the number of workers received from organizations. At the organization level, to determine the number of employees on a specific date or on average for a period, the indicators of the list average and average number of employees are used. They will be calculated according to timesheet or personnel records in the organization. The main unified forms of primary documentation for labor accounting and payment are orders or instructions on hiring, transfer to another job, granting leave, termination of an employment contract or contract, respectively, forms No. T-1, T-5, T-6, T- 8), personal card (form No. T-2) , timesheet for the use of working time and calculation of wages (form No. 12), timesheet for the use of working time (form No. 13), payroll sheet (form No. 49), etc.

Methods for calculating the number of labor resources:

Economic method

Demographic and economic methods for the whole country give the same results. However, at the regional level, due to migration, the number of labor resources may vary.

List number of employees - This is a momentary indicator determined for a specific date. It includes employees who worked under an employment agreement (contract), as well as the owners of the organization who worked in it and received wages.

The list number of employees (S sp) for each calendar day consists of those who showed up for work (S present) and those absent for any reason (S no-show)

S sp. =S jav. + S absentee

The following employees are included in the payroll in whole units:

1) those who actually showed up for work, including those who did not work due to downtime, as well as homeworkers hired on a part-time or part-time basis in accordance with an employment contract, working at a foreign enterprise.

2) those who did not show up for work for the following reasons: due to leave (annual, additional, maternity, child care, educational, without pay due to family responsibilities or the initiative of the administration), a day of rest for early hours worked, illness, fulfillment of government duties duties, strikes, absenteeism, being under investigation: until a court decision, as well as off-the-job training, if in this organization the salary is maintained at work, business trips and temporary work in other organizations.

In order to avoid repeated counting of the same people in general indicators of the number of workers in the economy as a whole, the following workers are not included in the payroll number:

1) hired part-time from other organizations;

2) those who performed work under civil contracts;

3) those recruited to work in organizations under special agreements with government organizations for the provision of labor (military personnel and persons serving a prison sentence);

wages are maintained;

5) those sent by the organization to study at educational institutions outside of work and receiving a scholarship at the expense of these organizations;

6) those who submitted a letter of resignation and stopped working before the expiration of the warning period or without warning the administration; They are excluded from the payroll of employees from the first day of absence from work;

7) non-working owners of this organization.

Based on data on the payroll number of employees, they calculate

indicator of the average number of employees for the period (month, quarter, year).

The average number of employees for a month is calculated as the ratio of the sum of the number of employees (T sp) for all calendar days of the month divided by their number of calendar days of the month (D cal). On weekends and holidays, it is taken equal to the number of employees for the previous working day:

In order to avoid distortions when using the average payroll indicator in calculations of other economic indicators, some categories of payroll workers are not included in the average payroll. These include:

1) women on maternity leave or additional leave to care for a child;

2) employees studying in educational institutions and on additional leave without pay;

3) persons who are not on the payroll and hired to work under special contracts with government organizations for the provision of labor;

4) persons who worked part-time in accordance with an employment contract; they are taken into account in proportion to the time worked. The average number of employees for a period of more than 1 month is determined using the simple arithmetic average formula from average monthly data:

The average number of employees for the reporting month can be obtained by dividing the number of appearances and absences for the entire month by the number of calendar days of the month:

Based on momentary indicators of the payroll number of employees at the beginning (end) of each month, the average payroll number of employees can be determined using the chronological average formula:

where T 1, T 2, ... T n - the number of employees on the payroll at the beginning (end) of the month;

n is the number of months in the period.

The average number of external part-time workers is calculated in the following order:

1. determine the total number of people in days (D f) worked by part-time workers, for which the total number of man-hours worked (H f). In the reporting period, they are divided by the established duration of the working day in hours (H n):

D av = ;

2. find the average number of part-time workers (for the reporting period), for which the number of man-days worked (Df) is divided by the number of workers

calendar days in the reporting month (D cal):

Number indicators and content of the indicator

Table 11

Index Calculation method and content of the indicator
Average annual workforce A ) according to available data at the beginning and end of the year: where T n.g. -the number of labor resources at the beginning of the year; T k.g. - number of labor resources at the end of the year; B) for a moment series of dynamics with unequally spaced intervals: where is the number of labor resources on certain dates; t – duration i-th period of time; C) on a certain date for equal periods of time: where n– number of levels (dates); T 1… n– the number of labor resources on a certain date.
Pension load factor 1) Determined by the formula: where is the number of people of retirement age (women over 55 years old and men over 60 years old). Shows how many people are over the working age for every 1000 people of working age. Indicates the degree of load of pensioners on labor resources
Continuation of table 11
Total load factor 1) Determined by the formula: where is the number of children under 15 years of age and people of retirement age. Shows how many people are of non-working age (younger and older than working age together) per every 1000 people of working age.

For more detailed analysis and assessment, the working age population is divided by composition into persons under 40 years of age (young) and persons over 40 years of age (older).

In statistical practice, labor information is developed for the main and non-core activities of service and other enterprises of the organization. The personnel of the main type of activity includes all employees of the organization, including administrative and technical personnel, except for employees of structural divisions of other (as opposed to the main) types of activity that are on the balance sheet of the organization.

The number of employees of the enterprise is constantly changing. Employees enter and leave work for a variety of reasons. This may be personal circumstances, the initiative of the administration, or a consequence of the personnel and economic policies of the enterprise. The movement of employees during the reporting period can be presented in the form of a balance: the payroll number of employees at the beginning of the reporting period plus the number hired for the reporting period minus the number of those who left during the reporting period equals the payroll number of employees at the end of the even period.

The number of hired and retired employees on the payroll does not include:

a) employees hired under special contracts with government organizations (military personnel and persons serving a sentence of imprisonment);

b) external part-time workers;

c) employees who performed work under civil contracts.

Statistics studies the total volume of movement of the number of employees and the reasons influencing it. For this purpose, absolute and relative indicators of the movement of labor resources are calculated.

1. Absolute indicators.

1.1. Hiring turnover is the total number of people hired for a period for all reasons. From the total number, those admitted through the direction of employment services and employment of citizens, the initiative of the enterprise itself, transfer from other enterprises, after graduating from universities and secondary specialized institutions are distinguished.

1.2. Attrition turnover is the total number of people dismissed during the period for all reasons. Separately, those dismissed due to: conscription into the army, admission to educational institutions without work, transfer to other enterprises, expiration of the employment contract, retirement, death of an employee, reduction of staff, the employee’s own desire, absenteeism and other violations of labor discipline are distinguished. .

Excessive and necessary labor turnover is distinguished. Excessive turnover also called staff turnover, includes dismissals at will and for violations of labor discipline. Necessary turnover characterizes dismissals for all other reasons.

1.3. The total turnover of labor is the sum of the turnover of admissions and departures, i.e. the sum of the number of hires and dismissals for the period.

2. Relative indicators , characterizing the intensity of movement of labor resources over a certain period.

2.1. Hiring turnover ratio - the ratio of the number of people hired (S pr) to the average number:

1.2. Attrition turnover ratio is the ratio of the number of people laid off (S uv) to the average number of employees:

2.3. Turnover rate - the ratio of the number of people dismissed at their own request and due to violations of labor discipline (S tech) to the average number of employees:

1.3. Employee replenishment ratio - the ratio of the number of hired and dismissed:

2.5. The coefficient of composition constancy is the ratio of the number of employees who worked during the period (S post) to the payroll number of employees at the end of the period:

Along with data on the movement of workers, enterprises submit information to the statistical authorities on the release and hiring of workers, as well as on the reduction and introduction of jobs.

Population statistics (demographic statistics) studies patterns of quantitative changes in population. In accordance with this main task, it studies: the size, composition and movement of the population; causes and factors of population changes, migration, fertility, mortality, life expectancy. It studies the composition of the population according to various criteria - gender, age, social status, education.

Objectives of population statistics:

study of the number, location, demographic and socio-economic composition; analysis of reproduction and population dynamics; determination of the future size of the entire population and its individual contingents.

Population is the starting point for calculating many indicators and is of great economic and social importance. Knowledge of it is necessary for management, planning of economic and social development of the country. The size of a country is usually judged by its population.

The population is constantly changing due to birth and death rates, as well as due to spatial movement of the population.

The population size is determined by the state at a certain point in time, i.e. as a result of censuses. The census is currently the main method for accurately determining population size. However, population censuses are relatively rare, and population data is constantly required. Therefore, in the periods between censuses, statistical authorities carry out the so-called current population assessment, i.e. carry out calculations based on the latest census data and current statistics on population movements. Its calculations are updated based on the results of the next census.

There are two categories of population taken into account during population censuses: permanent settlement and existing population. The permanent population includes persons who usually live in a given locality, and the current population includes all persons who were in a given territory at the critical moment of the census, regardless of whether they live here permanently or temporarily. To determine the size of the permanent population, the census process takes into account those temporarily absent and temporarily residing. Temporarily absent are permanent residents of a given locality who have temporarily left it. Thus, those temporarily absent are part of the permanent population. Temporary residents make up part of the current population.

The resident population can be determined:

where is the current population;

– temporarily absent;

- temporary arrivals.

The average population indicator is of great importance in population statistics. Average population size can be calculated using different methods. The most accurate method is the person-years lived by the population. In this case, the total number of person-years lived by a given population during the period of time being studied is determined and divided by the length of this period. Often the average annual population is determined as half the sum of its size at the beginning and end of the year.

,

where is the population at the beginning of the year;

– population at the end of the year.

If data is available for several dates that are equal to one another, the calculation can be made using the average chronological simple formula:

.

If the time distance between the dates is unequal, then the calculation is carried out using the arithmetic (chronological) weighted average formula:

To calculate population changes over time, dynamics indicators are calculated.

The population is the main material component of society and the study of the patterns of its development is of great importance for the country's economy.

For each individual country, the total population can change due to two factors:

natural movement (fertility and mortality); migration (mechanical) movement.

However, not only the total population size is changing, but also the composition.

Currently, statistics use four complementary sources of population data:

population census; current accounting of the natural movement of the population and its migration; sample and special demographic surveys; registers and various population records.

Data from these sources is used for different purposes and cannot replace each other. However, there is a close connection between them: each source complements or continues the other.

The main source of population data is the census, which is conducted once every 10 years. During this process, the population census is carried out in settlements at a certain point in time, which is called the critical moment.

When characterizing population dynamics, two circumstances must be taken into account:

1) you can compare the population of only one category (either permanent or existing);

2) if there were administrative-territorial changes, then the population data should be comparable in relation to the territory.

Total absolute population growth ():

or ,

where is natural growth;

– mechanical growth.

Wherein ;

,

where is the number of births;

– number of deaths;

– number of arrivals;

– number of people leaving.

Both general and natural, and migration growth can be positive or negative. Absolute increases are interval indicators; they are calculated for certain periods of time (annual indicators are of greatest importance).

Population data is presented on a territorial basis (within administrative-territorial units). Structural indicators are used to characterize the distribution of the population. These are: 1) the proportion of the population living in certain regions; 2) an indicator of physical population density, which is calculated as the ratio of the population to the area it occupies (the highest population density is 15,539 people per 1 km2 in Monaco).

One of the main characteristics of population distribution is its division into urban and rural. According to the accepted classification, cities are divided into:

small – with a population of up to 50 thousand; average – 50-100 thousand; large – 100-250 thousand; large – 250-1 million; the largest – more than 1 million.

By studying fertility, mortality and natural population growth, statistics, first of all, determines their absolute sizes, i.e. establishes the number of births, the number of deaths and the difference between these numbers, called the absolute indicator of natural population growth. These indicators are calculated for a certain period of time - a year, a month, etc.

Relative indicators for these quantities, called coefficients, are also calculated.

Birth rate per 1000 people:

,

where is the number of births;

– average population size.

Mortality rate per 1000 people:

,

where M is the number of deaths.

Natural increase rate:

or equal to the difference between the birth rate and death rate:

.

Population vitality coefficient (Pokrovsky):

,

shows how many newborns there are per one deceased.

Infant mortality rate (Rats formula):

,

where – deaths before 1 year;

– born;

– born in the year preceding the current one.

The specific fertility rate is calculated as the ratio of the number of births () to the average number of women of reproductive age (15-49 years):

The general fertility rate (n) is equal to the product of the special fertility rate and the share of women 15-49 years old in the entire population ():

,

Where .

Migration balance:

Total absolute increase: .

Mechanical population growth rate:

.

Total population growth rate:

or .

Vital statistics include marriage and divorce rates. Migration rates are also calculated. There is a distinction between immigration and emigration. Migration indicators are the number of arrivals to a given locality, those leaving and the difference between them - the balance of migration. The balance can be positive (mechanical population growth) and negative. The intensity of migration and emigration, as well as the relative change in numbers, is determined as the ratio of these indicators to the average population, multiplied by 1000.

Labor resources are the part of the country's population that has the necessary physical development, health, education, qualifications and professional knowledge to work in the national economy. Labor force statistics studies the following categories:

working age population; working-age population of working age; labor resources.

The size of a country's labor force is primarily determined by the size of the working-age population.

Labor resources in general are potential labor resources. In addition to them, there are also existing (functioning or used) labor resources. This is part of the total labor resources employed in the national economy. The difference between potential and existing labor resources characterizes the absolute value of unused labor resources.

To characterize the age structure of the population from the point of view of labor resources, a number of relative indicators of structure and coordination are calculated. This is the proportion of persons under working age, working age and over working age in the total population. The higher the proportion of people of working age, the more efficient the age structure of the population in terms of labor resources.

The working-age population is a set of people capable of working due to age and health. Working age limits are established by labor legislation. In the Republic of Belarus, the working age population is considered to be: for men – 16-59 years; for women – 16 – 54. The rest of the population is considered disabled according to age. It is divided into two specific groups: the pre-working age population (10-15) and the post-working age population (men 60 years and older, women 55 years and older). The first of them is a source of compensation for loss and replenishment of labor resources in the future. The second is the “pension burden” on the working population.

Not all of the working age population is capable of working. Therefore, it is divided into the working population and the non-working population of working age. Students of working age, off-the-job studies at universities and vocational schools, and persons in military service do not participate in social production. In addition, they include a part of the population engaged in childcare and other reasons in their households).

The second group includes the working age population with disability groups I and II and persons receiving pensions on preferential terms.

The number of labor resources is determined as of a certain point in time. When calculating a number of indicators, the average annual number of labor resources is used, which is determined in the same way as the average annual population.

Based on these population groups, two working capacity coefficients are determined:

the entire population; working age population.

Working capacity rate of the entire population:

,

where is the working-age population of working age;

- the entire population.

Working capacity coefficient of the working age population:

,

where is the working age population.

Pension load factor:

,

where is the population of retirement age.

Labor replacement rate:

,

where is the population of pre-working age.

The total load coefficient (age economy coefficient) reflects the degree of load of the working-age population by the population of all non-working ages:

or .

In addition to the working population, the employed population includes working pensioners (people of retirement age, but not retired; disabled people of I and II disability groups), working teenagers under 16 years of age.

To characterize changes in the number of labor resources over time and the rate of its change, absolute growth, growth rate and growth rate of labor resources are calculated.

The change in the number of labor resources from one date to another within a year is called the movement of labor resources. There are natural and mechanical movement of labor resources.

Natural movement consists of the replenishment of potential labor resources due to the transition of the younger generation to working age (15-16) and their loss due to:

some people going beyond working age; transition to disability and pension on preferential terms; of death.

With mechanical movement, replenishment occurs due to immigration, and loss occurs due to emigration of the population.

The number of potential labor resources can be determined at the beginning and end of the year, taking into account and without taking into account the balance of migration. the difference between the number of potential resources at the beginning and end of the year represents absolute natural increase (). To characterize the intensity of reproduction of labor resources, the coefficient of natural increase () is calculated:

; ,

where is the coefficient of natural replenishment;

– coefficient of natural disposal;

– average annual number of labor resources.

Natural replenishment coefficient:

,

where is natural replenishment.

Natural disposal rate:

,

where is natural disposal.

Then the coefficient of natural increase:

An indicator characterizing the demand and supply of labor - the vacancy rate:

,

where is the declared number of required labor force;

– average number of personnel of the enterprise.

Intensity level of expected labor release:

.

Unemployment rate:

Important for the Republic of Belarus and its regions are indicators characterizing the age structure of the population in terms of labor resources.

Control questions

How to determine the average annual population? How to find absolute population growth over a year? How to determine the Pokrovsky coefficient? How to determine the specific fertility rate? Labor resources, main categories. How to calculate the pension burden ratio of the population?

Labor resources- this is the working-age part of the population, which, due to age and health, is capable of producing material and spiritual benefits, as well as providing services. Labor resources include the economically active population (actually employed and unemployed), as well as those unemployed for one reason or another (economically inactive population).

According to the legislation of the Russian Federation, the working population includes citizens aged 16-54 (inclusive) - women, 16-59 (inclusive) - men. The group of disabled people includes: non-working disabled people of groups I and II of working age, non-working pensioners of working age receiving a pension on preferential terms.

In order to calculate the number of labor resources, we take the total number of working-age population by age, to which we add the number of working pensioners and working teenagers (under 16 years of age) and exclude the number of non-working disabled people of groups I and II (working age), as well as the number of pensioners of working age receiving pensions on preferential terms.

With Russia's transition to market relations, in statistical analysis, in addition to the category of “labor resources,” the category of “economically active population” (actually employed and unemployed - labor force) began to be used. But for integral calculations, the category “labor resources” is still used, since it includes, in addition to the actually employed and unemployed, those who are able to work, but for one reason or another are not actually employed in social production.

In statistics natural movement of labor resources is defined as a change in their numbers that is not related to the process of population migration (adolescents entering working age; attracting pensioners, as well as persons under 16 years of age, to employment; natural retirement due to the mortality of persons of working age, transition to retirement or disability of persons of working age, etc. .d.).

A change in the number of labor resources due to migration is the so-called mechanical movement of labor resources.

In order to calculate the intensity of changes in the number of labor resources and carry out statistical analysis, the following relative indicators are used: the coefficient of natural replenishment (Kep), the coefficient of natural retirement (Kev), the coefficient of natural increase (Kpr) and the coefficient of migration growth (Kmp) of labor resources.

Natural replenishment rate labor resources is calculated as the ratio of the number of pensioners and teenagers who have entered working age and are involved in public labor to the average number of labor resources (%) for a certain period:

Natural disposal rate is calculated as the ratio of the number of those who left the labor force to the average size of the labor force (%):

(3.11)

Natural increase rate is calculated as the difference between the coefficients of replenishment and retirement of labor resources:

(3.12)

Migration growth rate labor resources is calculated as the ratio of migration growth to the average value of labor resources (%):

(3.13)

With Russia's transition to market relations, great importance began to be attached to the analysis labor balance, which is a system of statistical indicators reflecting the quantitative characteristics of the two most important components of the use of labor resources: formation (availability and sources of reproduction) and distribution of labor resources by spheres and types of economic activity.

Statistical analysis of the quantitative characteristics of the formation of labor resources is carried out using the following indicators.

Absolute increase in labor resources(APtr) is calculated as the difference in the number of labor resources at the end and beginning of the year:

(3.14)

where TRp is the number of labor resources at the end of the year; TP0 - number of labor resources at the beginning of the year

Growth rate(Tr) is calculated as the ratio of the absolute values ​​of the number of labor resources at the end and beginning of the year.

First we determine the growth coefficient:

then we determine the growth rate, which is equal to the growth coefficient multiplied by 100%:

(3.15 a)

Rate of increase(Tpr) is equal to the growth rate minus 100%:

(3.16)

When drawing up the balance of labor resources, great importance is attached to the statistical analysis of the distribution of labor resources, especially the employed population. The composition of the employed is studied according to such important characteristics as gender, age, and level of education. The employed population is ranked into groups according to gender and age, both for the national economy as a whole and by regions and individual industries. The most important indicator is the level of education, which is determined by the number of persons per 1000 people with higher, incomplete higher and secondary specialized education.

With Russia’s entry into the world economic system and the transition to ISIC (International Standard Industrial Classification), developed by the UN Statistical Commission, the employed population began to be distributed according to types of economic activities(previously, under a planned economy, labor resources were distributed according to types of employment, where 5 main groups were distinguished: those employed in the national economy; full-time students of working age; working-age population employed in households; employed in the armed forces; unemployed population).

According to the new standards, the employed population is divided into the following groups:

o wage-earners(persons who have entered into an employment contract - contract, oral agreement - with the head of the enterprise or with an individual);

o employers(persons who manage a private or family business and employ hired workers on a permanent basis);

o self-employed(a group of citizens who work independently or have business partners, but do not hire workers on a permanent basis);

o members of production cooperatives(persons working in their own enterprise who have equal rights in production activities and in the distribution of income);

o helping family members(unpaid workers).

Of the listed groups, only the first (largest) are people who are employed; employees of the remaining groups are people who are self-employed. According to statistics, this group makes up approximately 5% of the employed population.

Based on data on the size of the economically active population and the employed population, statistics calculate employment rate Kzan, which is equal to the ratio of the number of employed Tzan to the number of economically active population of Tea:

(3.17)

When calculating the coefficient for individual age groups, the denominator of the employment coefficient formula takes the population size of this group instead of the economically active population.

The number of labor resources is calculated using three methods.

1. Demographic method:

where S T Р – number of labor resources;

S T – working age population;

S I – disabled people of groups I and II;

S RP – number of working teenagers;

S P – number of working pensioners.

Indicator name Calculation formula
Average population(for a moment series with equally spaced levels)
Fertility rate where is the number of children born per year; - average annual population.
Death rate Y is the number of children who died per year
Natural increase rate = K R – K cm
Viability factor
Infant mortality rate
Where Y o (t) - the number of children who died under the age of 1 year out of those born in a given year; Y(t-1) - the number of children who died under the age of 1 year among those born last year;
P(t)- number of births in a given year; P(t-1)- number of births last year.
Total growth population ∆ total = ∆ fur + ∆ eat = S 2 – S 1
Formula Smirnova N t1 t 1
where N t 1 is the population size after t years from the beginning of the countdown; P 1 - number of the beginning at the beginning of the countdown; P 2 - population at the end of the countdown; t 2 - time interval in years between two counts.
Calculation of the future population size or , or
Coefficient nuptiality
Coefficient Divorce rates
Growth rate Growth rate
Pace growth Average annual coefficient growth
Average annual growth rate Average annual rate of increase
Average annual growth rate Coefficient total growth number Total growth = Mechanical growth + + Natural growth
Absolute mechanical gain ∆ fur = P arrived - - B departed Coefficient mechanical growth To mechanical growth = To arrival - To departure
Arrival rate Coefficient disposals

2. Economic method:

where S Z is the actual employed population, including those employed in personal, subsidiary and agricultural farming;

S HH – employed in the household;

S U – students with a break from work (over 16 years old);

S B – number of unemployed;

S NZ – remaining unemployed persons of working age.

However, for these methods the results may not coincide due to pendulum migration.

3. Determination of the number of labor resources using a universal method, taking into account commuting migration:

where is the labor resources of the region (municipal formation of the city, region);

– the number of working-age population of working age;

– number of working teenagers;

– number of working people of retirement age;

– the number of people who came to work in a given region;

– the number of people who left a given region for work in other regions.

31 Methods for determining indicators of the economically active population and unemployment.

Economically active population - part of the population that offers its labor for the production of goods and services and includes employed and unemployed.

A) active population (Kean) is equal to

TO busy include persons of working age, as well as students over 15 years of age and pensioners who, during the period under review:

1. Performed work for hire, for remuneration on a full-time or part-time basis, as well as other income-generating work with or without companions, both with and without the involvement of hired labor, regardless of the timing of receipt of direct payment.

2. Temporarily absent from work due to illness, injury, annual leave, days off, holidays, training, educational leave, leave with (or without) pay, at the initiative of the administration, strike.

3. They worked without pay in a family enterprise or at home were engaged in the production of goods and services for sale.

Of great importance when studying the labor market is the classification of the population by employment status. Unlike labor, employment is not an activity, but a social relationship between people regarding the inclusion of a worker in the labor process in the workplace.

For unemployed people who previously had a job, status is determined by their previous employment. Classification by employment status is carried out based on the following definitions:

1. Hired employees are persons who have entered into a written employment contract or oral agreement with the management of an enterprise or an individual on the conditions of their labor activity, for which they receive the payment agreed upon when hired. Hired workers are divided into 2 groups:

· civilian population;

· military personnel.

2. Persons working on an individual basis - persons who independently carry out activities that generate income for them and do not use the labor of hired workers.

3. Employers - persons who manage their own (private, family) enterprise or are independently engaged in professional activities and constantly use the labor of hired workers.

4. Unpaid family workers are persons who work without pay in a family business owned by a relative.

5. Members of production cooperatives - persons who work at a given enterprise and are members of the collective of its owners (for example, a collective farm).

6. Persons who cannot be classified by employment status - the unemployed, those who previously did not have a job and persons about whom there is not enough information to classify them into one group or another.

Classification by employment status is carried out during the population census and special surveys on employment problems. It provides information about the social structure of society.

Based on data on the size of the economically active population and the employed population, statistics calculate employment rate K zan, which is equal to the ratio of the number of employed T zan to the number of economically active population T ea:

(13.17)

B) employment of the population (K zan) is equal to

When calculating the coefficient for individual age groups, the denominator of the employment coefficient formula takes the population size of this group instead of the economically active population.

Unemployed (in relation to the standards of the International Labor Organization) - persons of working age, students over 15 years of age and pensioners who, during the period under review, simultaneously satisfied the following criteria:

1. Didn’t have a job (gainful occupation).

2. Were looking for work, i.e. contacted a government or commercial employment service, used or placed advertisements in the press, directly contacted the organization’s administration or employer, used personal connections, etc., or took steps to organize their own business.

3. Were ready to start work during the survey week.

Pupils, students, pensioners and disabled people are counted as unemployed if they are looking for work and are ready to start work.

C) unemployment (Kbzr) is equal to

Economically inactive population – population that is not included in the employed and unemployed, including persons under 15 years of age:

· pupils and students, listeners and cadets of full-time educational institutions, as well as graduate students and doctoral students;

· persons receiving old-age pensions, on preferential terms, and for disability;

· persons engaged in housekeeping

· persons who have stopped looking for work;

· persons not looking for work, regardless of income level.

It is advisable to calculate all indicators of employment and unemployment in groupings by gender and age, by sector and region, by type of economic activity and form of ownership to identify the specific situation in the labor market.

The total number of unemployed and officially registered is taken into account when calculating the unemployment rate, when two main coefficients are calculated: the general unemployment rate K ob and the officially registered unemployment coefficient K ofb.

General unemployment rate(total unemployment rate) is calculated as the ratio of the total number of unemployed B about to the number of economically active population T ea:

Officially registered unemployment rate(level of officially registered unemployment) is calculated as the ratio of officially registered unemployed to the economically active population:

LECTURE 5

Labor potential - This is the ability of the entire set of labor resources to produce the maximum possible volume of goods under given conditions necessary to meet the needs of the population and ensure the progressive development of the economy.

This is an important and most active part of the socio-economic potential.

Labor potential society is determined by its ability to participate in economic activity, that is, to produce material goods and services.

TP carriers are the working population, which includes the population of working age, as well as the population beyond working age, engaged in economic activities. Unemployed disabled people of working age are not included in the working population. The limits of working age are determined by the legislative acts of countries, taking into account national characteristics, traditions and customs.

Factors, defining the country's TP:

A) Extensive factor - population growth EAN;

b ) Intensive factors :

*quality growth labor resources, their optimal distribution across industries, territories, sectors of the economy;

*increasing efficiency of use labor resources, the share of EAN in the number of labor resources;

*increasing the share of employed people in the EAN workforce.

Main group used in the analysis of TP composition: by age. The entire population is divided into three groups:

1) population younger than working age (0–15 years);

2) population of working age (16–54 years old - women; 16–59 years old - men);


3) the population older than working age – pensioners.

TP analysis – composition of labor resources – indicators demographic ( labor ) load(per 1000 people).

1) ; - coefficient of potential (labor) replacement,

2) ; - pension load coefficient,

3) ; - coefficient of total workload.

where https://pandia.ru/text/78/153/images/image005_143.gif" width="32" height="24"> is the number of people of retirement age from 60 for men and 55 for women and older;

The number of people of working age is from 16 to 59 for men and from 16 to 54 for women;

There is the following relationship:

Labor resources This is the part of the population that, based on age and health status, is actually employed or capable of working.

https://pandia.ru/text/78/153/images/image010_98.gif" width="10">Figure 4.1 – Composition of labor resources

Labor force groupings

By level of education: illiterate; reads and writes; elementary education; incomplete secondary education; general secondary education; secondary special education; incomplete higher education; higher education; scientific degree: candidate and doctor of sciences; academic title.

By skill level

By occupation

By profession

By gender

According to the age

By employment

By industry

By economic sector

By region

By type of ownership

By occupation

By length of service and so on.

Groups of the working-age population by occupation and profession allow us to study the distribution of workers by specific forms of work activity. Profession determined by the training received by the employee, the sum of professional skills necessary for specific types of economic activity. Grouping by profession reflects the qualitative changes that are taking place in the economy. Occupation often does not coincide with profession. Class determined by the place of work and position of the employee.

Employed people are grouped by status:

1) employees - acc. with a concluded employment contract, including ministers of religious cults and military personnel;

2) self-employed - on their own. enterprise for a fee that depends on the income received from the production of goods and services. Include:

a) employers – those employed in their own enterprise and using the labor of hired workers

b) self-employed - in their own business without hiring employees

c) members of production cooperatives - working in their own enterprise, where everyone has equal rights with other members.

d) helping family members - cannot be considered as partners, since the degree of their participation in the enterprise is not comparable with the participation of the head of the enterprise.

System of labor force statistics indicators

The system of labor force statistics indicators includes absolute and relative, moment and interval indicators. It consists of the following subsystems:

1. Indicators of the number (T) and composition of labor resources

The size and composition of the population can be determined by census, but the data is constantly changing. IN intercensal periods population size determined based on the following equality:

S K = S N + (N - M) + (P - V),

Where S K, S N are the population at the end and beginning of the year, respectively, N is the number of births during the year, M is the number of deaths during the year, N – M is the natural increase (decrease) of the population, P is the number of arrivals to a given territory in during the year, V – the number of people leaving a given territory during the year, P – V – mechanical increase (decrease) of the population.


In the Russian Federation, a feature is the uneven distribution of the population across the territory. The distribution of the population throughout the country is characterized by population density – population per 1 km. sq. territory, and the share of the urban population by federal subjects and districts, etc.

Labor force indicators calculated by 2 methods:

1) Demographic(by sources of formation);

T = NTV - II, II + Rp + Rpens

Where NTV - the sum of the population of working age, II, II - disabled people of groups I and II, Рп - working teenagers under the age of 16, Rpens - working pensioners

2) Economic(based on actual employment).

T = Nz + Tdh + Tu, + T6 + Tnz.

Where NZ - actually employed population, including those employed in personal, subsidiary and farm households, Tdkh - persons of working age employed in housekeeping and childcare, Tu - off-the-job students over 16 years of age, TB - unemployed, Tnz - other unemployed persons of working age.

Composition indicators:

1. Economically active population (EAP)- persons of the age established for measuring the economic activity of the population, ensuring during the period under review the supply of labor for the production of goods and services. It consists of employed and unemployed people.

EAN = H3 + Tb

The number of labor resources and economic activity can be determined as of a specific date or on average for a certain period. The average number of labor resources is determined using the arithmetic average or chronological average formulas.

Level of economic activity – this is the ratio of the number of EAN and the total population of the country

K EAN1 = EAN/S total

or the total number of labor resources:

K EAN2 = EAN/TR

on a certain date.

To characterize the EAN and its use, other coefficients are calculated that have independent significance in economic analysis.

A) Economic load factor per one economically active (Ken) is equal to the ratio of the average annual number of the total population (N) to the average annual number of economically active population (Nea):

b) Family load factor per economically active person (KSN) is equal to the ratio of the number of dependents of individuals on average per year (I) to the average annual number of economically active population:

Ksn.=I: Nope.

V) Vacancy rate (level)(Q) - the ratio of the number of people employed in the economy (T3) to the number of vacant jobs (Рм) - allows you to determine at any given moment how many employees there are per vacancy:

Kv = T3: Rm

2. Employment indicators

Busy– persons of both sexes aged 16 years and older, as well as persons of younger ages who during this period:

a) perform work (at least 1 hour per week) for hire for remuneration or other income-generating work, as well as self-employment for profit or family income;

b) temporarily absent from work due to illness, injury, nursing, annual leave, weekends, maternity leave, child care (up to 1.5 years), etc., retraining, strike, etc.

c) worked as a helper in a business owned by a household member or relative.

Forest fund" href="/text/category/lesnoj_fond/" rel="bookmark">forestry, hunting, fishing and its processing for the purpose of sale, exchange with other households or to provide for relatives living separately, friends, acquaintances.

Public works" href="/text/category/obshestvennie_raboti/" rel="bookmark">public works;

Employment– social relationship between people regarding the inclusion of an employee in the labor process at a certain workplace.

worker– potentially capable of work.

Busy- carrying out labor activities.

Forms of employment: regular (classic type of regular work) and irregular (short-term work, seasonal employment, casual work, on-call work, etc.).

Underemployment: visible and hidden.

Employment rate can be calculated in various ways, which allows you to deepen the analysis.

a) Labor force employment rate as employed population ratio(NZ) to total number of labor resources(T): https://pandia.ru/text/78/153/images/image017_61.gif" width="59" height="45">.

c) Employment rate of the active population as the ratio of the number of employed to the number of economically active population (NEA).

G) Unemployment rate (level)(Knz) - the ratio of the population (N) to the number of employed population (N3) - shows how many times the number of the employed population exceeds the number of the unemployed population in the economy, i.e. the economic burden per one employed:

Knz = N: N3.

d) Employability rate(Ktu) - calculated on the basis of data from employment services on the number of people who applied for employment - allows you to determine how many citizens are employed over a period of time (year) (Ttu) from among those who applied to the employment service (Tob):

Ktu = Ttu: Tob

3. Unemployment figures

Unemployed – persons aged EAN (from 15 to 72 op. rec. ILO), who simultaneously:

a) don't have a job

b) are looking for work through employment services, personal connections, trying to organize their own business, etc.

c) preparing to start work

The number of students outside of production and employed in the household is mobile reserve.

Pupils, students, pensioners and disabled people are considered unemployed only if they were looking for work and were ready to start it.

In the Russian Federation, the unemployed are:

· under 16 years of age;

· receiving labor pensions for old age or old age, including early and for long service;

· Violated the procedure for registering as unemployed.

Types of unemployment:

Voluntary unemployment – the consequence of dismissal at will, increases during growth and decreases during recession and crisis, depends on age, profession, education, gender and other characteristics.

Involuntary unemployment – dismissal against the will of the employee, due to staff reduction, at the request of management, decreases during periods of growth and increases during periods of recession.

Frictional unemployment – the voluntary transfer of workers from one job to another due to differences in supply and demand in industries and sectors of the economy, as well as structural restructuring of the economy.

Structural unemployment – if there are unemployed persons, enterprises have unstaffed jobs due to professional qualifications and geographical mismatch between the unemployed and vacancies. In a market economy, it always exists and requires retraining of personnel, improving their qualifications, and changing the structure of graduating specialists.

Cyclical unemployment- dynamic changes in the number of unemployed, in its scale, duration, composition in connection with the business cycle. The most vulnerable are youth, women and non-indigenous people.

Technological unemployment– a consequence of the reduction in employment in production due to its automation and the introduction of new technologies.

Classic unemployment– release of some employees in order to increase wages for the remaining employees.

Long-term unemployment– stable unemployment of certain categories of citizens, when a person cannot find a job for a long time.

Chronic unemployment – the persistence of a high level of unemployment for a long time due to the lag of investment in creating new jobs from the growth in the number of hired workers.

Hidden unemployment– manifested in underemployment, part-time or week, mainly in small business, farming, individual entrepreneurship, as well as lack of employment opportunities, which forces part of the population to be registered in idle enterprises or to work part-time, week, etc. This category includes some of the people who do not register at the labor exchange due to lack of prospects.

Natural (normal) level unemployment - when there is no shortage of labor.

Unemployment statistics:

1) Unemployment rate:

· Working time" href="/text/category/vremya_rabochee/" rel="bookmark">working time (Tne) to the number of employed population (H3):

Knz = Tnz/H3.

3) Damage from unemployment – underproduced GDP:

First, the productivity of social labor is determined, characterizing the average volume of GDP per 1 person employed in the economy:

DIV_ADBLOCK22">

Then the damage from unemployment (Ub), expressed in the volume of product underproduced due to unemployment, is determined as the product of the number of unemployed (Tb) and labor productivity (LP):

Ub = PT Tb.

Then it is necessary to take into account the costs of paying unemployment benefits and the loss of educational potential (estimated conditionally). The cost of paying unemployment benefits (Zb) can be defined as the product of the number of unemployed people by the average amount of unemployment benefits (Pb):

Zb = Tb Pb.

Thus, the total damage from unemployment includes 3 components: damage from underproduction of goods and services plus damage from the costs of unemployment benefits plus the costs of education for the long-term unemployed:

U = Ub + Zb + Zo.

Groups, used in calculating employment and unemployment, and allowing to identify the specifics of the situation in the labor markets:

by gender

according to the age

by sector

by region

by industry

by type of ownership.

Balance of labor resources" href="/text/category/balans_trudovih_resursov/" rel="bookmark">balance of labor resources (BTR).

armored personnel carrier- this is a table based on data from tax authorities (they issue licenses for certain types of activities) and includes 2 interrelated sections: indicators of the presence and composition of technical regulations and indicators characterizing their distribution by type of employment.

Table 4.1 – armored personnel carrier

Indicator name

Formation of labor resources

Number of labor resources – total, including:

working age population

foreign labor migrants

persons over working age employed in the economy

teenagers engaged in economics

Distribution of labor resources

I. Average annual number of people employed in the economy at their main job - total,

Including by type of ownership:

state and municipal

property of public and religious organizations

mixed Russian

foreign, joint Russian and foreign

II. Population not employed in the economy

Pupils of working age, studying outside of work

Working-age population of working age not engaged in economic activity or study

2. Indicators of labor flow

Absolute indicators of natural population movement include:

· number of births in a given country for a year (); , where MP and MV are migration replenishment and departure, respectively.

Mechanical replenishment – the number of arrivals (arrived) in this territory; mechanical disposal - the number of people who left (left) from the given territory.

https://pandia.ru/text/78/153/images/image041_0.jpg" width="433" height="153">

Figure 4.2 – Relationships between TR movement indicators

5. Indicators of the prospective number of TR

1) Short-term forecasting of the future numbers of TR and EAN is method extrapolations. The forecast values ​​are calculated using the formula:

,

where is the number of TR or EAN at the beginning of the forecast period; – predicted number; K is the coefficient of total growth of TR or EAN, which consists of the coefficients of natural and mechanical growth; n – number of years of the forecast period.

2) Method shifting ages – based on age-specific survival rates of the population and labor force during the study period (year). Calculation formula:

https://pandia.ru/text/78/153/images/image046_21.gif" width="19" height="24"> population living at the age of x years;

Number of people aged x years surviving to age (x+ 1) years;

Rx - the probability of survival of a population living at age x to the next age group ( x+1 ).

The value is always less than , since over the course of a year the number of living people decreases due to the mortality rate of the population of a given age https://pandia.ru/text/78/153/images/image046_21.gif" width="19" height="24"> at age , At the same time, its number decreases due to mortality. Replenishment of the total population occurs due to the annual appearance of a group aged 0 years (born in a given year). Accordingly, the number of labor resources increases due to able-bodied persons who turn 16 in a given year, and decreases due to persons retiring due to old age or disability or due to death. Therefore, for long-term calculations of labor resources using the age shift method, it is necessary to have age-specific working capacity coefficients of the population (i.e., the share of the working-age population in the total population for each age). It should be noted that in prospective calculations, the working capacity coefficients for persons of non-working age (teenagers under 16 years of age and persons of retirement age) are equated to the employment coefficients of the corresponding age.

Age-specific working capacity coefficients of the population are determined based on an analysis of their values ​​for previous years with possible appropriate adjustments based on expert assessments.

Long-term calculations of the number of labor resources form the basis for forecasting the labor potential resources of a country (region).